#narps: Neuroimaging Analysis
Replication and Prediction Study

about the project


The goal of this study is to estimate the variability of neuroscientific results across analysis teams. In particular, we collected fMRI data from n=119 participants on two versions of a mixed gambles task. For the data analysis, research groups versed in fMRI analysis will be given the raw data to independently estimate the brain activations according to nine ex ante hypothesized brain regions. The main outcome variable will be the number of teams reporting a statistically significant whole-brain corrected result for each hypothesis. In addition, we will run prediction markets for all hypotheses, providing an estimate of peer beliefs about the results.

Confidentiality agreement. Importantly, we apply a multiple-blind procedure. This indicates that researchers from the analysis teams, traders on the prediction markets, and the investigators from this project are not allowed to disclose any information from their part to any other researcher until all analysis teams have submitted their analyses and the prediction markets have closed.

time plan (preliminary)


November 2018  |  Distribution of data to the analysis teams.

February 2019  |  Deadline for submission of data analyses.

March 2019  |  Prediction markets are open for 10 days.

April 2019  |  Payout of traders on the prediction markets.

who coordinates this project?


The project will be run by research teams from California Institut of Technology, Stanford University, the Stockholm School of Economics, Tel Aviv University, and the University of Innsbruck. The fMRI data was collected during winter and spring 2018 at Tel Aviv University. The contact person for the analysis teams is Rotem Botvinik-Nezer, from Tel Aviv University.

Rotem Botvinik-Nezer
Rotem Botvinik-Nezer
Tel Aviv University
Colin Camerer
Colin Camerer
California Institute of Technology
Chris Gorgolewski
Chris Gorgolewski
Stanford University
Anna Dreber
Anna Dreber
Stockholm School of Economics
Felix Holzmeister
Felix Holzmeister
University of Innsbruck
Jürgen Huber
Jürgen Huber
University of Innsbruck
Michael Kirchler
Michael Kirchler
University of Innsbruck
Magnus Johannesson
Magnus Johannesson
Stockholm School of Economics
Jeanette Mumford
Jeanette Mumford
University of Wisconsin-Madison
Russel Poldrack
Russel A. Poldrack
Stanford University
Tom Schonberg
Tom Schonberg
Tel Aviv University

References


Camerer, C. F., Dreber, A., Forsell, E., Ho, T. H., Huber, J., Johannesson, M., Kirchler, M., Almenberg, J., Altmejd, A., Chan, T., Heikensten, E., Holzmeister, F., Imai, T., Isaksson, S., Nave, G., Pfeiffer, T., Razen, M., & Wu, H. (2016). Evaluating replicability of laboratory experiments in economics. Science 351(6280): 1433-1436.

Camerer, C. F., Dreber, A., Holzmeister, F., Ho, T. H., Huber, J., Johannesson, M., Kichler, M., Nave, G., Nosek, B. A., Pfeiffer, T., Altmejd, A., Buttrick, N., Chan, T., Chen, Y., Forsell, E., Gampa, A., Heikensten, E., Hummer, L., Imai, T., Isaksson, S., Manfredi, D., Rose, J., Wagenmakers, E.-J., & Wu, H. (2018). Evaluating the replicability of social science experiments in Nature and Science between 2010 and 2015. Nature Human Behaviour 2(9): 637-644.

Canessa, N., Crespi, C., Motterlini, M., Baud-Bovy, G., Chierchia, G., Pantaleo, G., Tettamanti, M., & Cappa, S. F. (2013). The Functional and Structural Neural Basis of Individual Differences in Loss Aversion. Journal of Neuroscience 33(36): 14307–14317.

De Martino, B, Camerer, C. F., & Adolphs, R. (2010). Amygdala Damage Eliminates Monetary Loss Aversion. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 107(8): 3788-3792.

Dreber, A., Pfeiffer, T., Almenberg, J., Isaksson, S., Wilson, B., Chen, Y., Nosek, B. A., & Johannesson, M. (2015). Using Prediction Markets to Estimate the Reproducibility of Scientific Research. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 112: 15343-15347.

Tom, S. M., Fox, C. R., Trepel, C., & Poldrack, R. A. (2007). The Neural Basis of Loss Aversion in Decision-Making under Risk. Science 315(5811): 515–518.