#narps: Prediction Markets

about the markets

We will measure peer beliefs about the main outcome variables by running prediction markets with another sample of neuroscientists and neuroeconomists who did not participate in the neuroimaging analysis, acting as traders. Similar to previous studies (Dreber et al., 2015; Camerer et al., 2016, 2018), researchers will be provided with monetary endowments and will trade on the outcome of the hypotheses via an online market platform. We will run a prediction market for each hypothesis, predicting the fraction of teams reporting significant whole-brain corrected results. Trading on the prediction markets will be incentivized, i.e., traders will be redeemed based on their performance in the markets. The markets will only open for trading after all analysis teams have submitted their results. Estimated time of markets’ opening is March 2019. Markets will be open for 10 days.

participation & data

How can I access the prediction markets? The market can be accessed via a separate trading platform that will be announced to participants after signing-up for participating. User credentials (user names and passwords) will be sent in a separate e-mail.

How will personal data be handled? When analysing data from the market and survey, we will identify participants solely through the trader ID. Personal data such as email addresses or names will not be used in the analysis, will be removed from any published data and will be deleted once payments for the prediction markets have been made.

Who can and cannot trade? All members from the project team, as well as all members that are part in the analysis teams will not be eligible to trade in the markets, and also are expected to keep themselves as uninformed as possible about activity in the markets until their own analyses have been finished and submitted.

market setup & trading

Details on the market setup and trading procedures will be announced shortly...


The registration form for prediction market traders will be available shortly...